1. Immigration was barely discussed. No one topic is as controversial on the right as immigration reform. If you want to be called a RINO then go out and support immigration reform. None of the major 2016 players who were there touched the subject which, frankly, was concerning. There was a panel (stacked 3:1 with those against amnesty being represented by the 1) and Ann Coulter on the last day who, needless to say, pulled zero punches when it came to those on the right (Rubio in particular) who support the Senate bill or amnesty of any kind. At some point this issue needs to be discussed, and I hope the side that wins out is the one that realizes inviting 30 million unskilled workers who barely (at best) speak English would be a calamity for our economy, for smaller government, and for the Republican Party.
2. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Chris Christie looked ready to campaign. They each had different points to prove Thursday. Cruz wanted to show he was still Ted Cruz, Rubio is still rehabbing his image with conservatives after the amnesty bill, and Chris Christie, who was not invited last year, needed to make amends for his dreadful convention speech in 2012, hugging Obama after Sandy only three days before the election, Medicaid expansion, and other various RINO behavior. Each accomplished their goal. Each got a ton of applause. And each looked like they have been practicing their stump speeches in the mirror.
3. But all three are behind Rand Paul. I'm not going to say they are that far behind because they are not. However, despite the efforts of the CPAC organizers dissuade the college students who usually support Paul from attending by raising prices this year, Paul still won the straw poll handily (Paul tripled-up second place Cruz). In previous years when his father won the straw poll the results were mostly written off as not being representative of the conservative movement as a whole (and certainly not the Republican Party - Libertarians tend to travel in clusters). This year, with the lack of controversy that surrounds Rand and his outreach to constituencies not traditionally affiliated with the Republican Party, it is clear that the poll results have more truth to them than usual.
4. Paul Ryan had the most disappointing speech. Usually you can count on Paul Ryan getting one of the better receptions for an elected official at CPAC, which is what made today surprising. His speech was largely forgettable. In fact, the only lines I remember are one about the left offering full stomachs, but empty souls (a good line to drop for the evangelicals), another where he said "big government sounds great in theory," and he pitch for conservatives to focus on the left and to stop seeking out heretics on the right. After a year that has seen Ryan come out in support of amnesty for illegal aliens (which unsurprisingly he did not touch on) and produce a joke of a budget compromise with his Senate counterpart Patty Murray one would think he would take this opportunity to give a full throated defense of conservatism full of red meat, but to me it sounded like he went through the motions. Mention budget. Mention supply-side economics. Talk up the cultural impact of liberalism. End Scene. I'm not the world's biggest Ted Cruz fan, but it was easy to see on Thursday morning why Cruz is loved by the conservative movement and why Ryan is slowly falling out of it's good graces.
5. Sarah Palin is not running for President. And she shouldn't. She won't win the primary and she knows that is a fact. As much as she is adored by the Tea Party, the Tea Party has people who hold office to throw support behind. Palin has a role to play, and few in politics can captivate a crowd like she can, but at the end of the day she knows she has much more to lose than to gain by running...mostly because she wont win the nomination.
6. 2016 is going to be a street fight. As I see it now it is not split up ideologically - it will be a Governors primary (Jindal, Perry, Christie, Walker, Huckabee, Bush, Pence(?), Martinez(?)) and a Senators primary (Paul, Cruz, Santorum) with some other characters thrown into the mix, but at the end it will be a Governor v. Senator fight to the nomination.
Beyond that, it was a fairly uneventful CPAC. Sure, there are divisions in the party, but the larger issues are not ideological - they are tactical. The folks who attend CPAC know that to beat the left you need to not just believe in conservative principles, but you also need to fight for them at every opportunity. Now is no longer the time to pick battles - we need to fight every single one going forward and the politicians who understand that are the ones who will attract the support needed to win the coming brawl for the GOP nomination.
2. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Chris Christie looked ready to campaign. They each had different points to prove Thursday. Cruz wanted to show he was still Ted Cruz, Rubio is still rehabbing his image with conservatives after the amnesty bill, and Chris Christie, who was not invited last year, needed to make amends for his dreadful convention speech in 2012, hugging Obama after Sandy only three days before the election, Medicaid expansion, and other various RINO behavior. Each accomplished their goal. Each got a ton of applause. And each looked like they have been practicing their stump speeches in the mirror.
3. But all three are behind Rand Paul. I'm not going to say they are that far behind because they are not. However, despite the efforts of the CPAC organizers dissuade the college students who usually support Paul from attending by raising prices this year, Paul still won the straw poll handily (Paul tripled-up second place Cruz). In previous years when his father won the straw poll the results were mostly written off as not being representative of the conservative movement as a whole (and certainly not the Republican Party - Libertarians tend to travel in clusters). This year, with the lack of controversy that surrounds Rand and his outreach to constituencies not traditionally affiliated with the Republican Party, it is clear that the poll results have more truth to them than usual.
4. Paul Ryan had the most disappointing speech. Usually you can count on Paul Ryan getting one of the better receptions for an elected official at CPAC, which is what made today surprising. His speech was largely forgettable. In fact, the only lines I remember are one about the left offering full stomachs, but empty souls (a good line to drop for the evangelicals), another where he said "big government sounds great in theory," and he pitch for conservatives to focus on the left and to stop seeking out heretics on the right. After a year that has seen Ryan come out in support of amnesty for illegal aliens (which unsurprisingly he did not touch on) and produce a joke of a budget compromise with his Senate counterpart Patty Murray one would think he would take this opportunity to give a full throated defense of conservatism full of red meat, but to me it sounded like he went through the motions. Mention budget. Mention supply-side economics. Talk up the cultural impact of liberalism. End Scene. I'm not the world's biggest Ted Cruz fan, but it was easy to see on Thursday morning why Cruz is loved by the conservative movement and why Ryan is slowly falling out of it's good graces.
5. Sarah Palin is not running for President. And she shouldn't. She won't win the primary and she knows that is a fact. As much as she is adored by the Tea Party, the Tea Party has people who hold office to throw support behind. Palin has a role to play, and few in politics can captivate a crowd like she can, but at the end of the day she knows she has much more to lose than to gain by running...mostly because she wont win the nomination.
6. 2016 is going to be a street fight. As I see it now it is not split up ideologically - it will be a Governors primary (Jindal, Perry, Christie, Walker, Huckabee, Bush, Pence(?), Martinez(?)) and a Senators primary (Paul, Cruz, Santorum) with some other characters thrown into the mix, but at the end it will be a Governor v. Senator fight to the nomination.
Beyond that, it was a fairly uneventful CPAC. Sure, there are divisions in the party, but the larger issues are not ideological - they are tactical. The folks who attend CPAC know that to beat the left you need to not just believe in conservative principles, but you also need to fight for them at every opportunity. Now is no longer the time to pick battles - we need to fight every single one going forward and the politicians who understand that are the ones who will attract the support needed to win the coming brawl for the GOP nomination.
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