Jumping the Ferns

In 2008, when Obama mania swept through college campuses faster than VD it was hard not to be in awe that in just 4 years a relatively unknown politician went from Illinois State Senator to DNC keynote speaker to the Democrat Party's nominee for president after sweeping aside the vaunted Clinton machine. He was fresh, he was different, he spoke to young kids directly, but most importantly to many of my fellow millennials he was deemed to be “cool.” They didn't want another square in the White House, they wanted a guy who hung out with rappers and movie stars. This was a guy they could see themselves partying with, unlike those Republicans and they voted as such. 66% of those 18-29 years old who voted backed Obama in 2008. There was nothing he could do wrong.

Obama was the Fonz.

Over the next four years there was bound to be some Obama fatigue amongst the young. After all living at home with mom and dad in your mid to late twenties while working temp jobs was not the hope and change my peers voted for, but nevertheless they saw Obama versus another “square” in 2012 and once agains supported Obama,. Heck, he may not have been everything he told us he was, but he is good looking and cool (plus his commercials played before the YouTube video we watched!). We can't have our president be some lame, number crunching nerd! We want the guy who binge watches Netflix when his wife in out-of-town, just like we do when our parents finally leave the house!

So once again Obama was able to kick the jukebox and keep the music playing for another inauguration. Four more cool years with a president who just gets us, man. Which brings us to today and the latest moment of outreach to millennials by President Obama, his “interview” with Zack Galifinakis on the web series “Between Two Ferns.”

As far as youth outreach geared towards enrolling in ObamaCare, this was by far the most creative move yet by the White House. Because of various regulations aimed to “bend the cost curve down” the law is heavily dependent on healthy, young adults signing up for the law (ideally the administration would like about 37% of the new sign-ups to be these “young invincibles). So the most tech-savvy administration in history (except when it comes to building websites) attempted to go viral in an effort to boost the underwhelming youth enrollment numbers, which the best estimates put at 25% of those who have signed up for a plan through the exchanges.

Putting aside the absence of humor and strained rebuttals, did this do the trick? Did Between Two Ferns sell the law better than the outright lies President Obama originally used to sell the law? The early indications are that they did a decent job at driving clicks to the website, but converting visitors did not go so well.

As someone who works for a digital advertising company focused on hitting metrics our clients set for us., I am curious to know what the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were for this ad. Usually, for ecommerce clients, metrics such as a return on ad spend, a cost per new user acquisition, or at the very minimum pricing efficiency for a branding campaign are used to judge the success of a campaign. Publically the administration is trying to tout this as a success (Jay Carney bragged about 3 million views of the ad already) but the early metrics seem to tell a different story.

While 3 million people watched the video, only 19,000 clicked through to the website giving this 6 minute long direct response ad a click through rate of 0.6%This is above the industry average for normal sized, display units (about 0.1%) but this was a high impact, video placement starring the president and a celebrity. However, the click through rate cannot be the KPI for this campaign as the administration needs people to sign up. Of course, given that HHS won't even release detailed numbers of those who have actually paid their premium's thus far we are left to estimate. In the spirit of fairness, let's give the Obama administration an ultra-optimistic conversion rate of 20% for those who clicked through. This would give them 4,000 new enrollees. That's it. I'm sure these numbers will increase, but it is unlikely at this point the percentages will change much, which means only 0.12% of the people who watch that video will end up converting. At best. 

Now, to be fair this wasn't the most embarrassing interview this president has given. He didn't call on Hispanics to punish their enemies (Republicans), lie (every time he said you can keep your plan if you like it), or take a crack at those with special needs. He just droned on about his signature achievement to the exact audience that turned out to volunteer and elect him twice; the very people he needs to ignore common sense and economics in order to save his health care law.

So what happened? Isn't the administration expecting a surge of young invincibles rushing to the web and saving the day? 

The truth is that this president's coolness can no longer overcome the damage his policies are doing to his supporters. There will be no surge no matter how many videos the president makes.  No matter what whacky, unbecoming of the presidency act is next it will be nothing more than white noise. They have stopped paying attention to him.

Just like Fonzie did decades ago when he revved up his motorcycle and cleared the shark tank, President Obama has finally hit the point where he can do nothing more to make the nation's youth enthralled by his every step, it is all downhill from here. He has finally jumped the shark.

Check that. He has finally jumped the ferns.

I'd Rather Vote For David Brooks

First off, I want to state that for all his faults, Mitch McConnell should not be target number one. Kentucky is a purple state with a Democrat in occupying the state house. It is unlike, for example, South Carolina, which is deep red and for some reason is also the home of one of the most liberal Republicans in the Senate, Lindsey Graham. Yet, whenever I log online or turn on talk radio Mitch McConnell seems to be treated as a bigger enemy and easier target than Lindsey Graham, even though McConnell's primary opponent Matt Bevin supported TARP and Lindsey Graham is the definition of an easy target. What I am saying is, every time someone complains about McConnell and says nothing about Graham should do some research into how Senate Majority and Minority Leaders are elected. The more you fail to oust people like Graham the more likely it is you end up with majority leaders like McConnell. This isn't a defense of McConnell, I would like him out too, but there are easier targets that we should be focusing on more than McConnell.

Now that I have said my piece on McConnell...is there anything more obnoxious than a member of the GOP elite taking to the New York Times to blast conservatives? “I think we are going to crush them everywhere.” Does Mitch McConnell realize that the people he is promising to bring his all-crushing awesomeness down upon are the same people he will need to knock on doors, donate, volunteer, and most importantly vote for him in the general election? Of course not, because like most creatures of Washington, Mitch McConnell feels that he has slapped enough backs and returned enough favors that he is entitled to serve out his life in the Senate. So what does he do about this Tea Party problem? He runs to the most notorious left-wing rag in the country to put down conservatives and make sure they know that him and his establishment buddies will stop at nothing to muzzle conservatives. Too. Damn. Bad.

If Mitch McConnell ever wants to understand why conservatives want him gone all he has to do is look at his reaction to Tea Party challengers. If he thinks going on stage at CPAC to honor a true conservative hero in Sen. Tom Coburn will reverse his words in this article and his moderate streak then he is exactly the kind of politician that Tea Partiers know he is: an arrogant political operative who has such a low opinion of the electorate that he believes a flashy entrance and some waving of the hands is enough to distract from his record. He may not be the most liberal GOP Senator up for reelection, but when people wonder why grassroots conservatives shoot steam out of their ears when they hear his name just remember this article and that will tell you everything you need to know about Mitch McConnell.

CPAC 2014 Thoughts and More

Some initial thoughts on CPAC and where things stand:

1. Immigration was barely discussed. No one topic is as controversial on the right as immigration reform. If you want to be called a RINO then go out and support immigration reform. None of the major 2016 players who were there touched the subject which, frankly, was concerning. There was a panel (stacked 3:1 with those against amnesty being represented by the 1) and Ann Coulter on the last day who, needless to say, pulled zero punches when it came to those on the right (Rubio in particular) who support the Senate bill or amnesty of any kind. At some point this issue needs to be discussed, and I hope the side that wins out is the one that realizes inviting 30 million unskilled workers who barely (at best) speak English would be a calamity for our economy, for smaller government, and for the Republican Party.

2. Marco Rubio, Ted Cruz, and Chris Christie looked ready to campaign. They each had different points to prove Thursday. Cruz wanted to show he was still Ted Cruz, Rubio is still rehabbing his image with conservatives after the amnesty bill, and Chris Christie, who was not invited last year, needed to make amends for his dreadful convention speech in 2012, hugging Obama after Sandy only three days before the election, Medicaid expansion, and other various RINO behavior. Each accomplished their goal. Each got a ton of applause. And each looked like they have been practicing their stump speeches in the mirror.

3. But all three are behind Rand Paul. I'm not going to say they are that far behind because they are not. However, despite the efforts of the CPAC organizers dissuade the college students who usually support Paul from attending by raising prices this year, Paul still won the straw poll handily (Paul tripled-up second place Cruz). In previous years when his father won the straw poll the results were mostly written off as not being representative of the conservative movement as a whole (and certainly not the Republican Party - Libertarians tend to travel in clusters). This year, with the lack of controversy that surrounds Rand and his outreach to constituencies not traditionally affiliated with the Republican Party, it is clear that the poll results have more truth to them than usual.

4. Paul Ryan had the most disappointing speech. Usually you can count on Paul Ryan getting one of the better receptions for an elected official at CPAC, which is what made today surprising. His speech was largely forgettable. In fact, the only lines I remember are one about the left offering full stomachs, but empty souls (a good line to drop for the evangelicals), another where he said "big government sounds great in theory," and he pitch for conservatives to focus on the left and to stop seeking out heretics on the right.  After a year that has seen Ryan come out in support of amnesty for illegal aliens  (which unsurprisingly he did not touch on) and produce a joke of a budget compromise with his Senate counterpart Patty Murray one would think he would take this opportunity to give a full throated defense of conservatism full of red meat, but to me it sounded like he went through the motions. Mention budget. Mention supply-side economics. Talk up the cultural impact of liberalism. End Scene. I'm not the world's biggest Ted Cruz fan, but it was easy to see on Thursday morning why Cruz is loved by the conservative movement and why Ryan is slowly falling out of it's good graces.

5. Sarah Palin is not running for President. And she shouldn't. She won't win the primary and she knows that is a fact. As much as she is adored by the Tea Party, the Tea Party has people who hold office to throw support behind. Palin has a role to play, and few in politics can captivate a crowd like she can, but at the end of the day she knows she has much more to lose than to gain by running...mostly because she wont win the nomination.

6. 2016 is going to be a street fight. As I see it now it is not split up ideologically - it will be a Governors primary (Jindal, Perry, Christie, Walker, Huckabee, Bush, Pence(?), Martinez(?)) and a Senators primary (Paul, Cruz, Santorum) with some other characters thrown into the mix, but at the end it will be a Governor v. Senator fight to the nomination.


Beyond that, it was a fairly uneventful CPAC. Sure, there are divisions in the party, but the larger issues are not ideological - they are tactical. The folks who attend CPAC know that to beat the left you need to not just believe in conservative principles, but you also need to fight for them at every opportunity. Now is no longer the time to pick battles - we need to fight every single one going forward and the politicians who understand that are the ones who will attract the support needed to win the coming brawl for the GOP nomination.