Who Do You Believe, Me Or Your Lying Eyes?

There is a larger point to make about the media, specifically Democrats in the media (there I go being redundant), giving free advice to conservatives about who they should run against Hillary in 2016 but I am going to try and stick with this one instance of unsolicited advice from the left.

President George W. Bush will be regarded by history as the last Republican President of the United States, according to Rep. Luis Gutiérrez (D-IL), if the GOP does not embrace and pass immigration reform.

“If you do nothing on immigration, I guess you can take comfort in knowing that, from Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, you had a pretty good run,” Gutiérrez added. “Freeing the slaves, winning the Civil War, interstate highway system; those all go in the highlight column. And there have been some low lights as well.”

Well, I guess that is it for the Republican Party (though there are many who would question how conservative Dubya was, including myself). The death of the Republican Party is, to borrow a term from another group of activists, "settled science." Unless we on the right agree to grant citizenship to 30 million low-skilled, non-english speaking illegal aliens then the Democrats will win until the end of time...or at least until they can't print any more money to finance the welfare these future marginally attached to the workforce laborers will need to survive in our horrible Kochconomy.

I will leave you with this, as I could spend days linking to and expanding upon articles about why this is not just bad politics for the right, but basically the worst idea for the economy since ObamaCare. Suffice to say, if even the more popular and easy to achieve piece of immigration "reform" is based on a total lie the reality of what would happen if full-blown amnesty is passed will probably be far worse than our practical minds will allow us to comprehend. I mean, we have to believe that Rep. Gutierrez has the best interests of the conservative movement and the country in mind...right?

Nevada: Ground Zero for the battle inside the GOP

This falls under the category of "Right conclusion, wrong reason."

Social conservatives say the Republican Party should deny Las Vegas’s bid to host its 2016 presidential convention after the Nevada Republican Party erased from its platform the pro-life and traditional-marriage language.

Diana Orrick, a Nevada RNC member, said grumbling over the changes is “ridiculous.”

“If you look at what is happening across the nation. I think a lot of Republicans are recognizing the social issues are destroying the Republican Party. They really are,” she said.

The Washington Times reported this month that the move came under fire from some Republicans, including Oklahoma Republican National Committee member Carolyn McLarty, a staunch opponent of abortion, who called the action an “attack on God and family.”

Ed Martin, chairman of the Missouri GOP and an RNC member, said that the move is a “big blow” to Las Vegas’s chances of hosting the party’s quadrennial made for television event.

There is a lot to work with here, but first let's knock down the idea that Las Vegas is a good location for the GOP convention. The Nevada state GOP platform shouldn't have anything to do with it because the Nevada state platform is not the star of the show, it is a 4-day rally to get the troops motivated and to formally introduce the nominee to the nation. The reason a Las Vegas convention is stupid is because there are too many ways to get in trouble and there will be cameras EVERYWHERE. Not just TV cameras and reporters, but anonymous trackers for liberal orgs who will be ready to upload every single step everyone associated with the convention online. There is absolutely no reason why Republicans should pick a location where the negatives far out-weigh the positives. What happens in Vegas would soon be on HuffPo.

Now, onto the other subject at hand, which is the fight between social conservatives and the more libertarian element in the GOP. The Nevada GOP is doing what the Nevada GOP thinks is best for the GOP to succeed in Nevada. This doesn't mean the pro-life movement will be ignored in the state (especially because GOP primary voters are generally overwhelmingly pro-life) or that the GOP is suddenly going to hold hands with the left and turn the state into one giant Planned Parenthood. On the contrary, the GOP in Nevada will continue to attract pro-life candidates the only difference being that if someone like their current Governor comes who happens to be pro-abortion that they won't be put off by the party platform (not that he was in the first place). All politics is local and this is what the Nevada GOP thinks will put them in position to win elections in the coming years.

What bothers me more isn't so much the "this is an attack on God" stuff but the complete disregard for inter-party federalism. I would put money on the people who are angry about the Nevada GOP removing social issues from their platform are the same people who are upset about Common Core and other areas of federal overreach because "people in Washington don't know what is best for me." They are absolutely right, which is why the 10th Amendment exists (and why it needs to be enforced more strictly). People in New Hampshire don't know what is best for people in Florida and the people of Oklahoma don't know what is best for the people of Nevada. I don't agree with what Nevada did, but the fact of the matter is that I don't live in Nevada because it is a state that doesn't appeal to me who a wide range of issue, this now being one of them.

Lastly, no one votes for a party platform. I understand why they exist, but why can't it be short like "The Republican Party: We believe you know what is best for you and your family." People vote for candidates, not platforms, and as a free market evangelist why not have a Nevada GOP platform candidate out there running nationally? The market will end up deciding if they succeed in being elected. Even as a pro-lifer I am far more offended at the idea that I know how to run the lives of people in a different state (and their party) more than they do than I am at the Nevada GOP pulling social issues out of their platform. Maybe the folks in Nevada are right and I am wrong. I don't think I am, and I will always be pro-life, but if states are the "laboratories of democracy" when it comes to policy, why can't it be this way for political parties as well?

Oh, and the Nevada GOP held a 2016 straw poll as well. The winner? Pro-life Senator Rand Paul.

In Obama's economy be thankful you pay taxes

April 15th is one of the few days on the calender when we put aside our differences and aim our collective ire towards the IRS. It isn't hard to get angry when thinking bout the work, the overtime, and everything in our personal lives we put aside in order to pay our bills, only to see a large chunk of it handed over to the government so they can do a variety of things we object to it doing before we even get a chance to budget out our month. Of course, we get this rage in small doses twice a month, but facing the cumulative total of Uncle Sam's plunder once a year is enough to drive even the most stable member of society into a blind rage. And yet, in 2014, we who pay taxes should be thankful. To clarify I think taxes should be lower across the board (ideally we should institute a flat tax on income or scrap the income tax altogether and institute a national sales tax), the tax code should be simplified (73,000 pages is more than excessive), and we should limit the amount of taxes the government is allowed to collect as a percentage of GDP (the 40-year average is a tad higher than 17% of GDP and that is too high for my liking). Taxes stifle growth, place limits on innovation, and dampen productivity by themselves, and that doesn't take into account the 6.1 billion hours and $168 Billion Americans spend preparing their taxes each year. Taxes are a destructive force that are too often used not to generate revenue but to punish or aid sectors of the economy based on the whims of the party in power. And that doesn't even touch upon what the taxes are used for – government intrusion into the private economy (ObamaCare, Solyndra), bailouts (GM), increased transfer payments (record numbers of Americans on food stamps and SSDI), and wars.

And yet, in 2014, we who pay taxes should be thankful.

One of my favorite political bumper stickers/slogans of all-time is “Work! People on welfare are depending on you!” Never has that been more true than on April 15th, 2014. According to the USDA, 20% of households were on food stamps last year. The monthly average of people on food stamps throughout 2013 was over 47 million compared to 33 million in 2009. We have seen the labor force participation rate drop to its lowest point in over 35 years since 2009 and the underemployment rate sits above 13% five years after the so-called recovery began. According to the Tax Policy Center 43% of Americans do not pay income taxes, over 46 million live in poverty, and median income has fallen 4% since the beginning of the recovery. Did I mention there are now over 80 means tested programs in America and that have spent over $3.7 Trillion over the past five years?

A lot of these numbers come from a concentrated effort by the Obama administration to increase the number of those eligible for these programs (and creating new ones), but the real reason why so many people are on welfare or are facing tough times is the terrible economy that continues to this day. Sure there are people who abuse the system (and let's face it, the welfare benefits in some states are better than working a low-wage job) but many people who want to work cannot work because of an administration that has declared war on work. ObamaCare will kill off hours worked and keep small businesses from creating jobs, higher taxes on “wealthy individuals” will ensnare small businesses, larger corporations are constantly under attack by an administration that spends more time talking about income inequality than income opportunity.

So let us rename tax day “Be Thankful You Have A Job In The Obama Economy Day.” We may not be happy about the amount the government is taking, or that they do it in the most inefficient way possible, or that they spend it on worthless projects and programs that suck the life out of the economy, or that there is rampant fraud in our welfare programs, or that so much goes to countries who hate us, but we can be happy that Obama's economy hasn't completely savaged our resilient private economy. Hopefully our friends, family, and neighbors who want to work but haven't found work will find work at companies constantly fighting against the headwinds the Obama administration has put in place.

So yes, be thankful you pay taxes in 2014. Not because of what the money does or the amount taken, but because you have managed to hold a job in spite of the economy and say a prayer for those who have added to 5-years of depressing stories about life in the Obama economy.

Jeb...exists

Let's start this blog with a quote from former Florida Governor Jeb Bush:

"There are means by which we can control our border better than we have. And there should be penalties for breaking the law," he added. "But the way I look at this -- and I'm going to say this, and it'll be on tape and so be it. The way I look at this is someone who comes to our country because they couldn’t come legally, they come to our country because their families -- the dad who loved their children -- was worried that their children didn’t have food on the table. And they wanted to make sure their family was intact, and they crossed the border because they had no other means to work to be able to provide for their family. Yes, they broke the law, but it’s not a felony. It’s an act of love. It’s an act of commitment to your family. I honestly think that that is a different kind of crime that there should be a price paid, but it shouldn’t rile people up that people are actually coming to this country to provide for their families."

First off, we knew this was Jeb's position all along. If he runs in 2016 the two policy issues that he will have to deal with are his support for Common Core and his support for comprehensive immigration reform. Jeb is going to throw border security fig leafs in front of his plan which will (rightly) be labeled as amnesty. For someone who has been in politics for a few decades there is very little Jeb can surprise voters with because his beliefs are well documented. His level of name recognition is not in the same league with Hillary, but it is higher than everyone else on the GOP side who is thinking about running in 2016 (with the possible exception of Christie and Paul).

But let's remember that Jeb knows the GOP primary is three primaries. The first two run concurrently – an establishment primary and a conservative challenger primary. Jeb knows his competition first and foremost is going to be Scott Walker, Chris Christie, and probably another Governor. The conservative base primary is where Paul and Cruz will duke it out (and whoever else gets in). The winners of these two races will go head to head, but Jeb knows if he can clear the establishment/moderate field before the conservative challenger can then he will have a major advantage. Let's be honest, McCain did it, Dole did it, and Romney to a lesser extent did it (but let us not forget that Romney was the conservative alternative to McCain for much of 2008).

One other thing to point out is the news today that Jeb is meeting with Russell Moore, head of the Ethics and Religious Liberty Commission, later this week. Moore is an evangelical leader, who took over for Dr. Richard Land (who was an extraordinarily influential evangelical in political circles) as head of the ERLC. Moore also teamed up with Ralph Reed to pen an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal about the need for compassionate immigration reform. It isn't hard to see the angle Jeb is playing here – it is our Christian duty to help our brothers and sisters no matter the land of their birth (or legal status). Jeb knows if he can pull some evangelicals from the conservative primary voters over to an already clear moderate primary field he could cruise to the nomination.

But all of this is speculation, as is the idea that anything Jeb says or does is some sort of bell weather as to which was he is leaning. The decision to run for president is first made on the family level and nothing that Jeb says or does before he announces should be treated as anything different than a public figure reiterating his position on an issue. If Jeb runs he will be as tough an establishment figure to contend with as we have seen since his father won in 1988 and it is foolish for those in 2014 to declare his candidacy DOA.

Rep. Jim Moran: You know what Congress needs? A raise!

How can you make an already unpopular institution even more unpopular? Well, this doozy of a quote sure is a start:

Rep. Jim Moran (D-Va.) thinks members of Congress aren't paid enough.

Speaking to CQ Roll Call, Moran, who is retiring after this term, said he and his colleagues are not adequately compensated for their public service.

“I think the American people should know that the members of Congress are underpaid,” Moran said. “I understand that it’s widely felt that they underperform, but the fact is that this is the board of directors for the largest economic entity in the world.”

Rank-and-file members of Congress are paid $174,000 annually. However, Moran says, it's just not enough, as members often have to maintain two residences: one in their home district and one in Washington, D.C.

"A lot of members can’t even afford to live decently in Washington," he said, noting that some of his colleagues sleep in their offices or rent "tiny" apartments to save money.

The median income in America is $51,017 and $174,000, according to Kiplinger, places members of Congress in the top 5% of taxpayers nationwide. Suffice to say there are not many people going to bed at night praying that members of Congress get a pay bump.

However, I don't find that particular part of the quote to be the most egregious comment that Moran made in this interview. People always think they should be paid more than they currently and let's be honest, to be the least trusted institution that Gallup has polled since 1973 you need to be filled with people like Jim Moran.

No, it was the "this is the board of directors" comment which really shows just how dangerously naive Moran is when it comes to his responsibilities and the role Congress needs to play. The government is not a business. It does not create wealth. However, it does play a role in setting the rules for business and with Moran being an ardent supporter of President Obama 's economic policies Moran owns a piece of the worst recovery (if you can call it that) in the post-WW2 era, the lowest labor force participation rate in the past 35 years, and a deficit spending binge that led to more debt being created under Obama than under any other previous president! This doesn't even include ObamaCare which is stunting growth and cutting hours for workers!

So, let's say he is on a board of directors - a quick glance at what has happened to our economy over the past 5 years is enough to have everyone fired, never mind get a raise! As President Calvin Coolidge said "The business of America is business," and Rep. Jim Moran, member of America's "Board of Directors" has rubber stamped every policy that has come in front of him that makes it more difficult for entrepreneurs and private enterprise to succeed.

So God Made Congress

I have come to believe that ObamaCare is the most difficult subject to write about simply because there are few original points left to make. Pundits and politicians tend to make the same points, crafted around the latest data, and only occasionally is a new study released or a new question asked. Today we just so happened to have one of these new points made, or at least a point that has not been made since implementation of ObamaCare began:

Democratic National Commitee chairwoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D., Fla.) is so impressed with Obamacare, she couldn’t think of any legislation Tuesday she would introduce to fix it. Nothing “glaring” anyway, she toldThe Daily Rundown‘s Chuck Todd.

...

” You know, I think there are going to be issues that arise around the margins,” she said. “If we just have a chance to sit down with Republicans, like we’ve done with hundreds of bills through years of our history, we could hammer out problems that arise. But when you’re dealing with –

“You don’t have one that’s on your radar screen?” Todd asked.

“That comes to mind immediately?” she replied. “No, nothing glaring. I’m not saying that there aren’t problems, but there are always going to be tics in a law that arise, and what we should be doing is sitting down and working those out.”

First off, this must be news to every single Democrat who is facing an uphill battle to retain their seat this year (especially in the Senate where the Democrats could lose control). It takes a brave safe politician to make a comment about the most contentious political issue of the past 5 years that places them firmly in the minority of Americans. Thirdly, and this is the most obvious point, it shows the exact arrogant attitude that has led to Congress's abysmal approval ratings. To believe that ObamaCare doesn't need to be fixed means you don't believe that people who have been kicked off their health insurance (over 6 million) have been adversely effected, you don't believe that people with serious illnesses are telling the truth about the hurdles they are facing to get the care they need, and that you don't believe health insurance premiums are about to skyrocket.

Also, without going too deep into the math, making a statement like this means that you believe that uprooting the entire health insurance system and screwing people who have plans and doctors they like all in the name of fairness while spending $2 trillion over the coming decade is the right way to go about getting 2 million people off the list of the uninsured. That's right, not the 7.1 million number being thrown around today, but when you take into account the number of people kicked off their coverage who are part of that number along with the 20% of the 7.1 million who are estimated to have yet pay their first month's premium we are looking at 2 million out of 45 million uninsured, or slightly over 4% of the uninsured population that this law was designed to help actually being helped (Medicaid doesn't count because it is barely health insurance). A true victory indeed!

Stories like this remind me why I thank God everyday for our congressional overlords who have the foresight to not only pass a law that will work flawlessly, but to do so before even reading the actual content of the bill! We are truly blessed to have people such as DWS in office who are incapable of making a mistake.

Note: Google Blogger doesn't like it when you copy and paste HTML from open office into the post so all the links are broken. If I was paid to do this I would fix it but I am not! Plus these stories are easy to find.

Jumping the Ferns

In 2008, when Obama mania swept through college campuses faster than VD it was hard not to be in awe that in just 4 years a relatively unknown politician went from Illinois State Senator to DNC keynote speaker to the Democrat Party's nominee for president after sweeping aside the vaunted Clinton machine. He was fresh, he was different, he spoke to young kids directly, but most importantly to many of my fellow millennials he was deemed to be “cool.” They didn't want another square in the White House, they wanted a guy who hung out with rappers and movie stars. This was a guy they could see themselves partying with, unlike those Republicans and they voted as such. 66% of those 18-29 years old who voted backed Obama in 2008. There was nothing he could do wrong.

Obama was the Fonz.

Over the next four years there was bound to be some Obama fatigue amongst the young. After all living at home with mom and dad in your mid to late twenties while working temp jobs was not the hope and change my peers voted for, but nevertheless they saw Obama versus another “square” in 2012 and once agains supported Obama,. Heck, he may not have been everything he told us he was, but he is good looking and cool (plus his commercials played before the YouTube video we watched!). We can't have our president be some lame, number crunching nerd! We want the guy who binge watches Netflix when his wife in out-of-town, just like we do when our parents finally leave the house!

So once again Obama was able to kick the jukebox and keep the music playing for another inauguration. Four more cool years with a president who just gets us, man. Which brings us to today and the latest moment of outreach to millennials by President Obama, his “interview” with Zack Galifinakis on the web series “Between Two Ferns.”

As far as youth outreach geared towards enrolling in ObamaCare, this was by far the most creative move yet by the White House. Because of various regulations aimed to “bend the cost curve down” the law is heavily dependent on healthy, young adults signing up for the law (ideally the administration would like about 37% of the new sign-ups to be these “young invincibles). So the most tech-savvy administration in history (except when it comes to building websites) attempted to go viral in an effort to boost the underwhelming youth enrollment numbers, which the best estimates put at 25% of those who have signed up for a plan through the exchanges.

Putting aside the absence of humor and strained rebuttals, did this do the trick? Did Between Two Ferns sell the law better than the outright lies President Obama originally used to sell the law? The early indications are that they did a decent job at driving clicks to the website, but converting visitors did not go so well.

As someone who works for a digital advertising company focused on hitting metrics our clients set for us., I am curious to know what the Key Performance Indicators (KPIs) were for this ad. Usually, for ecommerce clients, metrics such as a return on ad spend, a cost per new user acquisition, or at the very minimum pricing efficiency for a branding campaign are used to judge the success of a campaign. Publically the administration is trying to tout this as a success (Jay Carney bragged about 3 million views of the ad already) but the early metrics seem to tell a different story.

While 3 million people watched the video, only 19,000 clicked through to the website giving this 6 minute long direct response ad a click through rate of 0.6%This is above the industry average for normal sized, display units (about 0.1%) but this was a high impact, video placement starring the president and a celebrity. However, the click through rate cannot be the KPI for this campaign as the administration needs people to sign up. Of course, given that HHS won't even release detailed numbers of those who have actually paid their premium's thus far we are left to estimate. In the spirit of fairness, let's give the Obama administration an ultra-optimistic conversion rate of 20% for those who clicked through. This would give them 4,000 new enrollees. That's it. I'm sure these numbers will increase, but it is unlikely at this point the percentages will change much, which means only 0.12% of the people who watch that video will end up converting. At best. 

Now, to be fair this wasn't the most embarrassing interview this president has given. He didn't call on Hispanics to punish their enemies (Republicans), lie (every time he said you can keep your plan if you like it), or take a crack at those with special needs. He just droned on about his signature achievement to the exact audience that turned out to volunteer and elect him twice; the very people he needs to ignore common sense and economics in order to save his health care law.

So what happened? Isn't the administration expecting a surge of young invincibles rushing to the web and saving the day? 

The truth is that this president's coolness can no longer overcome the damage his policies are doing to his supporters. There will be no surge no matter how many videos the president makes.  No matter what whacky, unbecoming of the presidency act is next it will be nothing more than white noise. They have stopped paying attention to him.

Just like Fonzie did decades ago when he revved up his motorcycle and cleared the shark tank, President Obama has finally hit the point where he can do nothing more to make the nation's youth enthralled by his every step, it is all downhill from here. He has finally jumped the shark.

Check that. He has finally jumped the ferns.